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Threat to Sino-Pak friendship



THE issue of terrorism remains at the heart of the world’s diplomatic, economic and strategic engagement with Pakistan. It invariably constrains Pakistan’s pursuit of economic, strategic and political interests.

The ghost of terrorism will continue to haunt Pakistan and put more pressure on the country’s relations with its neighbours after the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. Pakistan’s major economic, strategic and political partner China will also expect that the former puts extra efforts into dealing with terrorism.

The recent incident of the kidnapping of a Chinese tourist from Zhob district of Balochistan coincided with President Mamnoon Hussain’s and Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s visit to Beijing to sign the contract of Pakistan’s first metro train project. Though the president condemned the incident and vowed that Pakistan would take effective measures to ensure the safety of Chinese citizens and projects in the country, China is deeply concerned about the security of its interests in Pakistan.

Also, it is concerned about the Uighur militants who are allegedly based in the Pak-Afghan border areas and have developed strong links with Pakistani and foreign militants of Central Asian and Arab origin sheltered in these areas.

Pakistan cannot set aside Chinese security concerns as China has emerged as a major economic development and trade partner of the country. According to media reports, China is investing around $52 billion in major projects in Pakistan.

China’s new leadership has come up with a regional economic approach to engage neighbouring countries for common development and economic integration. Under this framework, China wants improved regional infrastructure for better connectivity; it is offering help and collaboration in building better transport networks including roads, motorways, railways and air links.

Under this vision, China is planning to develop four highways and maritime economic corridors including the Bangladesh-India-Myanmar-China economic corridor and one with Central Asia. However, the Chinese are more enthusiastic about the China-Pakistan economic corridor and consider it an important part of the 21st-century Silk Road.

Chinese policymakers calculate three major risks which they think can hinder progress on the project. First, they are concerned about policy risks, both internal and external, and see the US as an irritant and India as a troubling factor. The internal policy issues are least likely to create any hindrance as the Pakistani establishment cannot delay the projects with China because of internal political turmoil; public opinion is also in favour of China.

The same applies to Chinese concerns about external interference as it seems almost impossible that the Pakistani political and military establishments would hamper any Pak-China project under external pressure. The Iran-Pakistan pipeline project has different global and regional perspectives and China understands the situation and Pakistan’s stated limitations.

The second risk entails Chinese policymakers’ perceived fiscal concerns. But the PML-N-led government is planning to allocate over Rs73bn in the Public Sector Development Programme for the next budget (2014-15) in order to implement development projects under the China-Pakistan economic corridor. Given Pakistan’s economic situation, assistance from the Chinese financial sector cannot be ignored. The Chinese know if there is a political will, there will be an economic way.

However, Pakistan needs to take more initiatives to address Chinese concerns related to their perceived security risks. China has two major security concerns: first, the link of terrorism and insecurity in China’s Xinjiang province to Pakistan’s tribal areas; and second, the security of its citizens working on projects in Pakistan.

The terrorists based in Pakistan’s tribal areas are not the only actors contributing towards insecurity in China; separatists and violent extremists based in Xinjiang also pose major internal security threats.

These factors have internal and external support and operational mechanisms. After the recent wave of terrorist incidents, Chinese authorities admitted that extremists are learning terrorism techniques through the internet. The growing similarities in militants’ operational tactics and strategies in Xinjiang, Chechnya and Dagestan reflect that coordination among the militants of these different regions cannot be completely ruled out.

The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (Etim) and its breakaway factions such as the Turkestan Islamic Party are expanding their outreach within China and recent incidents of terrorism in Beijing and Kunming have increased anxiety among the Chinese authorities.

A realisation is growing among Chinese think tanks that only the development strategy in conflict-ridden regions cannot resolve the problem; they will have to adopt a political approach to increase engagement with communities, including the Uighurs.

Despite these changing dynamics of terrorism and insecurity in China, Beijing still expects active support from Pakistan. The Chinese believe that militants based in Pakistan’s tribal areas were the masterminds behind major recent terrorist attacks that occurred in China.

That is why after incidents of terrorism in China, pressure on Pakistan increases.

Though Beijing does not interfere in Pakistan’s approach to pursuing talks with the local Taliban, this writer’s recent interaction with some Chinese think tanks and scholars suggested that China wishes that Pakistan should soon reach a conclusion about launching an operation against militants in the tribal areas. They perceive that military action will also weaken Etim. They fear that any delay in action against terrorists can provide space to the latter and they can relocate themselves around the proposed economic corridor and create problems in smooth construction and trade through the corridor.

This is a tough equation; China is not the US, and it keeps politics separate from its core issues. Pakistan will have less space to avoid Chinese pressure on this subject.

By Muhammad Amir Rana,  a security expert.
http://www.dawn.com/news/1109886/threat-to-sino-pak-friendship

Pakistan-China relations: A history - Blogs - DAWN.COM

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    Think 4 Peace

    The world is in turmoil; mass killing, genocide, ethnic cleansing, occupation of Muslim lands for natural resources, oppression, expulsions, deprivation and exploitation of innocent, Muslims by power hungry corrupt despotic rulers, greedy powerful countrymen, extremist religious groups and Neo-colonial powers has reached unprecedented level. People are perplexed, they want to get out of this quagmire but there is no way out in sight.

    The quest for "Peace and Justice" is exploited by foreign sponsored extremist in the name of religion to recruit Jihadists for power, plunder and exploitation. It adds fuel to fire and provide lame excuse, justification for more oppression and killing of Muslims by the enemies of humanity.

    Most of Muslim rulers & leadership have been entangled to tacitly serve agenda of hostile powers, just to protect their rule. The Muslim countries which were relatively strong and wealthy have been systematically dragged in to sectarian, ethnic & tribal civil war and breakup, thus adding fuel to fire.

    World peace is not achievable while 1.5 billion Muslims, rich in culture, history and resources are kept in state of turmoil, none will be secure and safe. Hence there is need for the intellectuals, thinkers and all those feeling distressed, to come forward to work out short and  long term "Methodology for sustainable  Peace" to meet the challenges at present and future. It shall help to make a safe and peaceful world for the humanity.

     Thought can refer to the ideas or arrangements of ideas that result from thinking, the act of producing thoughts, or the process of producing thoughts. Although thought is a fundamental human activity familiar to everyone. Thoughts are the result or product of spontaneous acts of thinking.

     Because thought underlies many human actions and interactions, understanding its physical and metaphysical origins, processes, and effects has been a longstanding goal of many academic disciplines including philosophy and sociology.
    Thinking allows humans to make sense of, interpret, represent or model the world they experience, and to make predictions about that world. It is therefore helpful to an organism with needs, objectives, and desires as it makes plans or otherwise attempts to accomplish those goals. Thoughts are the keys which determine one's goal. 
    "What is most thought-provoking in these thought-provoking times, is that we are still not thinking." – Martin Heidegger


    "Think 4 Peace" is a form for research and advocacy concerning humanity, religion, society, politics, economics, military, technology, culture & spirituality for a peaceful world. It is intended to improve public awareness of policy issues and to persuade governments, public, media, intelligentsia, political forces and other stakeholders to act upon issues of national importance to make it a peaceful world for all. Selected material and research work will be made available for easy access. 

     "Think 4 Peace" is associated with "Peace-Forum" Network which contains variety of related work, all managed by Aftab Khan, a  researcher and freelance writer.


    Peace-Forum - Introduction just in 43 Seconds by Peace-Forum

    Peace is a state of harmony characterized by the lack of violence, conflict behaviors and the freedom from fear of violence. Commonly understood as the absence of hostility, peace also suggests the existence of healthy or newly healed interpersonal or international relationships, prosperity in matters of social or economic welfare, the establishment of equality, and a working political order that serves the true interests of all.

    The world is now a global village, God has created human with divergent views, while peacefully urging others to good and refraining form evil, people of different cultures and beliefs can try to live like good neighbours:
    • “..be good to your parents, kinfolks, orphans, the helpless, near and far neighbors who keep company with you..” [Qur’an;4:36].
    • “You like for the people what you like for yourself, and you dislike for them what you dislike for yourself.”[Sayings of Prophet Muhammad (pbuh)Al-Tirmidhi Hadith,11, 1334]
    • “.. Thou shall love thy neighbor as thyselfs..”(Matthew 22:39-40, similarly Leviticus 19:18)
    • "All things whatsoever ye would that men should do to you, do ye even so to them. for this is the law and the prophets.[Matthew 7:12 similarly see Luke 6:31]
    • "What is hateful to you, do not to your fellowmen. That is the entire Law; all the rest is commentary": Talmud, Shabbat 31:a
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    How Pakistan Moves Against Taliban Could Complicate Afghan Ties


    Pakistan’s military is set to launch a major military operation in North Waziristan, AP reported this week, after weeks of hesitation over its strategy of negotiating with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Yet although the expected operation follows the killing of 23 Pakistani soldiers last month by a Taliban faction, it seems likely to have been motivated by something more than a desire to retaliate and coerce the TTP into talks.

    Whatever the motivation, it will have a significant impact on the country’s relationship with its weaker neighbor: Afghanistan.
    In early 2012, Pakistan’s Foreign Office publicly declared a “strategic shift” in its thinking on Afghanistan, and began promoting its own version of an inclusive reconciliation process, as well as actively reaching out to elements of the Northern Alliance. Islamabad adopted this new policy after concluding that its strategy of supporting the Taliban alone was unlikely to produce a “friendly” Afghanistan (in other words, one under close Pakistani influence) because the Taliban is, for now at least, simply not capable of taking the reins of power on its own.
    More broadly, the shift seems to reflect a perception in Pakistan that the Taliban are no longer a reliable proxy, although Islamabad appears to still believe that the Afghan Taliban would be able to secure Pakistani interests in Kabul. Now, Pakistan appears to be trying to broker a power-sharing agreement in which its proxies would dominate the east and the south of Afghanistan in exchange for their non-interference in the areas dominated by other ethnic groups. A national unity government that emerged from such an agreement would not be strong enough to prevent Pakistani maneuvering in Afghanistan.

    According to Pakistani officials and analysts alike, the main rationale for the shift is domestic security concerns, including significant worries over the TTP. Since the TTP operates from the FATA and Afghanistan, Islamabad worries that the movement may collude with the Afghan Taliban. But this introduces a major contradiction in Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy as it will only exacerbate the very threats it is trying to eliminate. After all, if the Afghan Taliban is frustrated in its aspirations to gain power in Kabul, as it might well be under the Pakistani proposal for inclusive negotiations, it could join hands with its Pakistani counterparts to seek a limited version of “Pashtunistan,” based on an ideological version of Pashtun nationalism. The fact is that even a limited operational alliance between the Afghan and Pakistani Talibans would create a serious headache for Islamabad, and could even increase the risk of conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    To complicate matters further, Pakistan cannot expect to quash the TTP without Afghan cooperation. Faced with Pakistani pressure, the TTP will inevitably seek refuge in Afghanistan, and recent Pakistani actions cannot on their own seal the border between the two countries.

    Afghanistan, of course, has no incentive to help Pakistan without a credible guarantee of non-interference from Islamabad, and the dynamic between these two countries also has implications for the United States, reducing its freedom to maneuver diplomatically. Having asked Pakistan to intervene in North Waziristan to eliminate al Qaeda and its proxies for years, the U.S. can only approve of the operation. Yet helping Pakistan get its way without obtaining any of the non-interference guarantees that the Afghans legitimately desire would diminish the potential for Afghan-Pakistani cooperation. This in turn would heighten the risk that terrorist sanctuaries could re-emerge, undermining more than a decade of counter-terrorism efforts.

    Ultimately, the reality is that coalition forces along the border have been unable to stop Taliban infiltration, meaning it is highly improbable that Afghan forces will perform any better on their own. More likely, the security situation will deteriorate on both sides of the border. And given Pakistan’s current policy toward Afghanistan – and despite any official rhetoric to the contrary – the country is likely to view continuing low intensity conflict in Afghanistan as a necessary step.

    Pakistan might suggest any new offensive is simply a response to recent events. But whatever the trigger, it is clear that there will be significant strategic ramifications.
    By Frederic Grare, a senior associate and director of Carnegie’s South Asia Program. His research focuses on security issues and democratization in India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Previously, he led the Asia bureau at the Directorate for Strategic Affairs in the French Ministry of Defense. [This article was originally published in CNN] http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/07/how-pakistan-moves-against-taliban-could-complicate-afghan-ties/h2se
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    Eyeing Pakistan and China, India's Modi bolsters security team


    India's new Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a beefed up security team with experienced veterans.

    India's new Prime Minister Narendra Modi has chosen a daring former spy with years of experience in dealing with Pakistan as his national security adviser, a move officials say signals a more muscular approach to New Delhi's traditional enemy.
    The choice of Ajit Doval, alongside former Indian army chief General V.K. Singh as a federal minister for the northeast region, underscores plans to revamp national security that Modi says became weak under the outgoing government.
    The two top-level appointments, reporting directly to Modi, point to a desire to address what are arguably India's two most pressing external security concerns - Pakistan and China, both of which, like India, have nuclear arms.
    Doval, a highly decorated officer renowned for his role in dangerous counter-insurgency missions, has long advocated tough action against militant groups, although operations he has been involved in suggest a level of pragmatism.
    In the 1980s, he smuggled himself into the Golden Temple in the city of Amritsar from where Sikh militants were later flushed out, and he infiltrated a powerful guerrilla group fighting for independence from India in the northeastern state of Mizoram. The group ultimately signed a peace accord.
    Doval was also on the ground in Kandahar, Afghanistan, when an Indian Airlines plane from Kathmandu was hijacked by Pakistan-based militants on Christmas Eve, 1999. The crisis was resolved when top militants were freed in exchange for hostages.
    "Doval is an out-of-the-box thinker," said an Intelligence Bureau officer with long years of service in Kashmir and other Indian hotspots. "Expect him to shake things up."
    The official, who did not want to be named, said he expected the new security team to push for a rapid expansion of border infrastructure and a streamlining of intelligence services, which still function in isolation and often impede one other.
    Singh has declared his priority is to develop the northeast in order to narrow the gap with Chinese investment in roads and railways on its side of the frontier.
    India is also creating a new mountain corps and beefing up border defences, although that initiative has stalled.

    Fear of Afghan spillover

    A secure India is a long-standing goal of Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the new prime minister himself wants strong borders so the country can focus fully on giving economic growth a much-needed boost.
    He won the election in May in a landslide victory largely on economic pledges that India's 1.2 billion people hope will secure jobs and raise living standards.
    But with most foreign troops withdrawing from Afghanistan by the end of this year, India is concerned that Islamist militants fighting there will turn their sights towards the disputed region of Kashmir, which is also claimed by Pakistan.
    India and Pakistan have fought two of three wars since independence over the Himalayan territory, and their armed forces are separated there by a rugged, mountainous Line of Control which militants have the capability to cross.
    Doval, 69, formerly head of the Intelligence Bureau domestic spy agency, will be National Security Adviser, only the second officer from the intelligence community to hold the post.
    By contrast, predecessor Shiv Shankar Menon is a member of the elite Indian Foreign Service - an expert on China and nuclear security known for his formidable intellect.
    Doval did not say what his priorities would be after his job was announced on Friday, but in conversations with Reuters previously as head of a right-wing think tank in New Delhi, he said the new government must lay down core security policies, one of which was "zero tolerance" for acts of violence.
    He was referring to operations by militants who India says cross from Pakistan, like the gunmen who killed 166 people in Mumbai in 2008 in a brazen assault that brought tentative peace talks between the South Asian rivals to a juddering halt.

    Carrot and stick approach

    Modi invited his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif, to his inauguration in a calculated sign of reconciliation. But he used stick as well as carrot.
    During nearly an hour of talks, he told Sharif Pakistan must prevent militants on its territory from attacking India and act speedily against the men India blames for the Mumbai massacre.
    Modi's assertive stance was in keeping with his Hindu nationalist agenda, which makes many of India's 175 million or so Muslims nervous, not to mention those in Pakistan next door.
    The two nations did, however, agree to relaunch peace talks.
    "Terrorism continues to be our main concern and we have to handle it in a holistic manner," said A.S. Dulat, a former head of the Research and Analysis Wing, which is charged with external intelligence gathering.
    "At the end of the day, war is not an option."
    While India will put diplomatic pressure on Pakistan, there is also an acceptance that the civilian government in Islamabad is not in a position to control all militant groups and that New Delhi needs to address weaknesses in its homeland security.
    "The one thing the new government will focus on is internal security, that's what worries them most. You don't want another Mumbai, you don't have a lot of good options if it happens," said an official at the Home Ministry.
    Pakistan said it remained committed to improving ties with India and that it had got off to a good start.
    "Whoever is appointed by Modi in his national security team is his own prerogative, and we will certainly not interfere in that," said Tariq Azeem, a senior official in Sharif's team.
    "Pakistan will carry on with the determination shown by Nawaz Sharif to build good relations with India. The meeting in Delhi was cordial and friendly and we hope to build on that," he told Reuters.

    Chinese front

    Modi's other key appointment, retired general Singh, may inject new urgency into India's plan to establish a corps of 80,000 troops along its border with China in the northeast.
    A massive program to build roads and upgrade airfields in the remote area was also cleared by the ousted Congress party, but has lagged.
    Singh, who won a parliamentary seat for the BJP in the election, is expected to accelerate the process through the defence bureaucracy, helped by a direct reporting line to the all-powerful prime minister.
    "Development of the northeast will be my top priority," he told reporters after taking charge on Thursday.
    China claims more than 90,000 square kilometres of land disputed by New Delhi in the eastern sector of the Himalayas, including most of Arunachal Pradesh state, which China calls South Tibet.
    "As China continues to refuse to recognize Arunachal Pradesh as an integral part of India, and builds military-grade highways that can rapidly move tanks and heavy artillery to India's border, it's absolutely the perfect stratagem to put a former army chief in charge of the region," wrote commentator Sandipan Deb in the Mint newspaper.
    But in another sign that Modi is keen to defuse regional tensions, he spoke to Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on Thursday and extended an invitation to President Xi Jinping to visit India.
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/eyeing-pakistan-and-china-india-s-modi-bolsters-security-team-1.2660955
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